A Forecast for 2025

The Maelstroms Ahead and how we can prepare

Feb 01, 2025

In 2008, Ian and I found ourselves deep in the Patagonian Andes, climbing among the iconic spires of the French Valley in Torres del Paine National Park. This region, known for its sheer granite walls and punishing weather, forces climbers to seize any fleeting opportunities nature provides. Back then, weather forecasting was unreliable at best, leaving us constantly on edge—watching the barometric pressure and scanning the sky.

We often sprinted out of base camp, hopeful that clearing skies would hold long enough for an attempt. More often than not, they didn’t. Eventually, after nearly a month camped in the valley, we committed to an unclimbed jagged peak named Los Gemelos. We climbed fast, deploying techniques honed on Yosemite’s walls—but we weren’t fast enough. The weather window slammed shut just 18 hours after it opened. The storm caught us on the final pitches—in the dark.

I vividly recall leading an off-width crack on the last headwall, snow and ice whipping into my face, the wind howling as I thrashed my way upward, seemingly determined to rip me off the wall. Every move was desperate, but the summit was just a few feet away. We made it. The descent was one of the wildest nights I’ve ever experienced—a direct result of operating without a forecast to see what was coming.

Fast forward to today: climbing in Patagonia has been transformed. The weather remains a massive challenge, but advances in satellite communication and forecasting (much of it pioneered by climbers in El Chaltén) have revolutionized the experience. Climbers now have visibility into weather windows, allowing them to plan safer, more efficient ascents. It’s not perfect, but it drastically improves the odds of success. This progress has opened the door to bigger, harder climbs and has made the region more accessible than ever before.

This story of transformation extends far beyond climbing—it’s a direct analogy for where we are in America right now.

The Roadmap for 2025

During Donald Trump’s first term, his administration operated with little structure or planning, leading to chaotic policymaking. Today, things are different. His team has a clear plan—one crafted not by Trump himself but by a highly motivated and well-funded coalition of MAGA-aligned conservative organizations led by figures like Stephen Miller and the Heritage Foundation.

Project 2025 is a sweeping conservative initiative designed to reshape the next U.S. administration through a comprehensive policy agenda, a pre-selected personnel database, specialized training programs, and a detailed 180-day action plan. Its proposals are ambitious and far-reaching, including restructuring federal agencies, rolling back environmental protections, cutting social safety nets, and advancing conservative social policies—such as restricting abortion access and eliminating diversity, equity, and inclusion programs.

It is so wildly extreme and unpopular—even within the MAGA crowd—that Trump distanced himself from it during the election. Yet, any daylight between Trump and this agenda was a fabrication. His actions during his first weeks back in office have proven that Project 2025 is very much the blueprint.

The plan is already evident in his administration’s actions, including sweeping deregulation, testing the limits of executive power, and efforts to remove DEI measures from the government.

What’s Next?

Project 2025’s 180-Day Playbook is designed to provide a roadmap for immediate actions across federal agencies. It aims to swiftly implement conservative policies and dismantle what its architects view as “leftist overreach.” Key aspects include:

Government restructuring: Dismantling entire federal departments, including Education and Homeland Security.
Policy changes: Sweeping rollbacks on education, immigration, healthcare, and environmental regulations.
Economic reforms: Tax cuts, potential changes to the Federal Reserve, and modifications to social programs like Medicare and Medicaid.
Social policies: Advancing conservative positions on abortion, LGBTQ+ rights, and diversity initiatives.
Immigration: Stricter border control and expanded deportation policies.

The Forecast

For those who dismissed Trump’s first term as chaotic improvisation, it’s time to reckon with the reality of what’s here—and what’s coming. Trump’s administration is not operating on a whim. They are methodically executing a premeditated strategy. The “shock and awe” of his initial weeks in office may feel overwhelming, but it was clearly communicated beforehand. This strategy is not only more sophisticated, calculated, and dangerous—it is entirely out in the open for anyone willing to look.

While we can and should be aghast, we should not be surprised. Just as climbers in Patagonia can now anticipate storms and prepare accordingly, we have no excuse for being caught off guard. The forecast is clear. The new administration and the Heritage Foundation, along with its coalition, have laid out their vision for America, and Trump’s team is working to make it a reality.

What We Need to Do

We know what’s coming. We know it will be destructive—rolling back environmental protections, attacking social safety nets, dismantling democratic institutions, and targeting vulnerable communities. But just as climbers in Patagonia now use forecasts to navigate incoming storms, we, too, can use this knowledge to prepare, defend, and ultimately regain ground.

Right now, our priority must be protecting people. Organizations like the ACLU are on the frontlines, ensuring that communities know their rights and can push back against government overreach. Federal workers can take steps now to safeguard democratic institutions, as Robert Reich has outlined. Reich has also outlined actions you can take now. At the federal level, actions are limited, although you should always make time to call your representatives and demand they stand up to this plan. On the local level, movements are organizing resistance in innovative ways, Dr. Len Necefer has written. And I recommend reading historian Heather Cox Richardson;s work as it reminds us of the historical context of this moment.

But clear(er) skies will come. There will be moments—perhaps brief but critical—when we can make gains. The challenge is ensuring that when those windows open, we’re ready. That means building networks, strengthening institutions, and crafting a long-term vision for reclaiming our future.

This is the work ahead. The forecast is clear—now it’s up to us to create plans to counteract the Trump team’s vision for the future of America.

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